I am interested in understanding the mathematical tools used to model oil depletion at large scales. I also have worked on modeling the transition to substitutes for conventional oil in the face of resource depletion. These tools will help us understand which oil substitites might be used in the future, how quickly and extensively we might need to develop them, and what their impacts could be.
Mathematical modeling resource quality and the systems-scale efficiency of energy extraction
*Brandt A.R., M. Dale (2011). A general mathematical framework for calculating systems-scale efficiency of energy extraction and conversion: energy return on investment (EROI) and other energy return ratios. Energies. DOI: 10.3390/en4081211 Free to access here: OPEN ACCESS PDF
*Brandt A.R. (2010). Oil depletion and the energy efficiency of oil production: The case of California. Sustainabilities. DOI: 10.3390/su3101833 OPEN ACCESS PDF
*Sorrell, S., J. Speirs, R. Bentley, A.R. Brandt, R. Miller (2010) Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence. Energy policy, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.04.046
*Brandt A.R. (2010). Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique. Energy: The International Journal. DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2010.04.045
*Sorrell, S., J. Speirs, R. Bentley, A. Brandt, R. Miller (2009). An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production. UK Energy Research Centre.
*Brandt, A.R. (2007). Testing Hubbert. Energy Policy, 35(May):3074-3088. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004
Mathematical modeling of the oil transition
*Brandt A.R., R.J. Plevin and A.E. Farrell (2010). Dynamics of the oil transition: Modeling capacity, depletion, and emissions. Energy: The International Journal. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.03.014
Presentation on modeling the oil transition, given at Stanford Energy Seminar (Sept. 23rd, 2009) [pdf]
Brandt A.R., A.E. Farrell (2008). Dynamics of the oil transition: Modeling capacity, costs, and emissions. UC Energy Institute, Energy Policy and Economics Working Paper 021.
*Denotes peer-reviewed paper
Brandt A.R. (2006). "Testing Hubbert." Best Student Paper Award Competition at 26th North American Conference of the International Association for Energy Economics. Ann Arbor, Michigan, September 25th, 2006.
Farrell A.E. and A.R. Brandt (2006). "Greenhouse gas emissions from a transition to oil substitutes." Modeling the Oil Transition: A DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions, April 20 - 21, 2006. Resources for the Future, Washington DC.
Updated: April 4, 2011