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Departments & Programs


21st Century Precipitation Changes Across Varying Temporal Scales

Changes in frequency and intensity of daily precipitation in the 21st century as simulated by the CMIP5 GCM ensemble under RCP 8.5.

Danielle Touma analyzes the characteristics of future precipitation projected by the CMIP5 ensemble under the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario for different temporal scales.


The figure here shows that, on a daily scale, the intensity of precipitation increases (decreases) when the frequency increases (decreases). This relationship holds in general for the globe and for all seasons.

Other analyses show that there is a consistent increase in the seasonal mean precipitationalong with an increase in the number of extremes over most of the regions in the higher-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, while the consistency among the GCMs in the mean andextreme precipitation responses does not exist in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere.

Further analysis will address sub-daily precipitation frequency, intensity and duration in the future period.