Earthquake fault interactions along the North Anatolian Fault Zone, NW Turkey
Personnel: A. Aydin
Collaborator: J. Muller (NASA Goddard Planetary Geodynamics Branch)
Description: The westward progression of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) from 1939 to 1999 provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the interaction between neighboring faults and the implications for spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes. This project focused on (1) the transition from the Mudurnu Valley rupture and the associated 1967 earthquake to the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture, and (2) the transition from the western end of the Izmit earthquake rupture to a poorly known territory under the Marmara Sea, a likely site of a future earthquake rupture. We tested various scenarios for the geometry of the faults and or specific ruptures using a boundary element method supplemented by field observations, bathymetry under the sea, seismic reflection, and the location and focal mechanisms of the past earthquakes. The results constrain self consistent models and allow us to make physically sound projections.

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Aydin, A., and Kalafat, D., 2002. Surface Ruptures of the August 17 and November 12, 1999, Izmit, and Duzce Earthquakes in NW Anatolia, Turkey: Their Tectonic and Kinematic Significance and the Associated Damage. Seismological Society America Bulletin, v. 92, No. 1, p.95-106.

Muller, J.R., Aydin, A., and Maerten, F., 2003. Investigating the transition between the 1967 Mudurnu Valley and 1999 Izmit earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault with static stress changes. Geophysical Journal International, v. 154, p. 47 - 482.

Muller, J.R., and Aydin, A., 2004. Rupture progression along discontinuous oblique fault sets: Implications for the Karadere rupture segment of the 1999 Izmit Earthquake, and a future rupture in the Marmara Sea, Tectonophysics, v. 391, p. 283-302.

Muller, J.R., and Aydin, A. 2005. Using geomechanical modeling to constrain fault geometries proposed for the northern Marmara Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research (in press).

Muller, J. R., Aydin, A., and Wright, T. 2005. Using a boundary element model to investigate static Coulomb stress change scenarios for earthquake ruptures in the eastern Marmara Sea region, Turkey. Geological Society Spec. Publ.. "Analogue and numerical modelling of crustal-scale processes"(inreview).
Former participant: J. Muller
Former collaborators: F. Maerten, T. Wright, D. Kalafat.