Using Artificial Neural Network and Sequential Predictive Probability Method to Mechanize Interpretation of Well Test Data


Suwat Athichanagorn







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We propose a robust way of achieving a well test interpretation by combining the sequential predictive probability method with an artifcial neural network approach. The sequential predictive probability method considers all possible reservoir models and determines which candidate model or models best predict the well response. This method is dependent on obtaining good initial estimates for the parameters governing the candidate reservoir models, which is achieved by applying the artificial neural network approach. We use the neural network to identify the characteristic components of the pressure derivative curve corresponding to the flow regimes known to be in each candidate model. Reservoir parameters are then computed using the
data in the identified range of the corresponding behavior.

As a final step, the candidate models and their initial estimates are evaluated using the sequential probability method. The method discriminates between the candidate models and simultaneously performs nonlinear regression to compute the best estimates of reservoir parameters.

The trained neural network was able to identify the characteristic components of the derivative curve in most cases. The algorithm written to interpret the neural network signals into flow regimes required special procedures to take care of the misclassification from the neural network. The initial estimates of reservoir parameters from the neural network were found to be reasonably close to the eventual estimates from the sequential predictive probability method.

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