Assessing Geothermal Resource Potential in Egypt’s Western Desert Through Integrated Techno-Economic Modeling

Abstract

Over the past two years, electricity consumption in Egypt has increased from 34.2 GWh to 36.8 GWh, leading to daily power outages of around 3 hours during the summer months. Geothermal energy, a renewable power source stored in subsurface rock and fluids, offers a sustainable solution to Egypt's blackout crisis. This resource has the potential to be a complement to energy sources to address the increased electricity consumption amidst a decline in natural gas production. Despite Egypt's high potential for groundwater available from different aquifers spread across the country, limited research has been conducted on Egypt's geothermal potential. To investigate this potential, a feasibility study was conducted in a selected field. The study workflow started with collecting available data about the Bahga field in Egypt`s Western Desert, including geographic data like its location and extension, and petrophysical data like hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and depth. Bahga field has been previously explored and drilled with more than 12 wells and has a reservoir temperature of 290°F (143°C), making it a promising site for geothermal resource exploitation. Using the available data as an input for the Flexible Geothermal Economics Modeling (FGEM) tool, specifically designed for the techno-economic analysis of flexible geothermal power generation, we evaluated the economic feasibility of the Bahga field in Egypt’s Western Desert. The FGEM utilizes a range of surface and subsurface parameters from each aquifer to estimate key economic indicators, such as the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). In parallel, we developed and applied an in-house resource power potential and techno-economic analysis methodology, which was directly compared against the FGEM outputs to validate and cross-check the results. The in-house workflow incorporated multiple resource power potential estimation techniques, primarily the Volumetric Method and Power Density Method, with the overlap between both approaches used to enhance confidence in the final estimates. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo Simulation framework was implemented to generate probabilistic forecasts (P10, P50, P90) for both the geothermal resource potential and the associated economic indicators, ensuring a robust representation of uncertainty. The comparative analysis of alternative hydrothermal field development scenarios yielded insightful outcomes. The project demonstrates a P50 internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 24%, with a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) ranging from 60 to 330 USD/MWh, depending on the selected field development strategy. The results are highly promising and align with Egypt’s Vision 2050, supporting the nation’s transition toward clean, renewable, and reliable energy sources.