Techno-Economic Viability of Next Generation Geothermal Resources Across the Temperature Spectrum: A Comparative Analysis with Superhot Rock

Abstract

LCOE, IRR, and other techno-economic metrics were computed for a 500 MWe EGS project in 294 scenarios across temperatures ranging from 200–450°C, gradients from 28.3–112°C/km, and 2 drilling and completion cost models representing FOAK (first of a kind) and NOAK (Nth of a kind) approaches. Results indicate that SHR EGS may yield approximately 43% lower LCOE and 246% higher IRR compared to 200°C in NOAK scenarios. The gradient-weighted average SHR IRR (internal rate of return) of 34.5% is 24.5 percentage points greater than the gradient-weighted average Low-Medium IRR of 9.98%, a 246% relative increase. This is primarily driven by the higher enthalpy of SHR fluids, which increases net power production per well up to 520% and thereby reduces the total number of wells required by up to 84%. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that for high geothermal gradients, SHR may yield compelling returns even in present-day FOAK scenarios, with the IRR increasing by 21 percentage points or more compared to lower-temperature EGS.