Risk analysis in the geothermal potential assessment - Case study Croatia

Abstract

The purpose of the techno-economic assessment of geothermal potential is to determine the possibility of exploiting geothermal energy. All geothermal exploration areas in the Republic of Croatia are located in the hydrocarbon exploration areas. The knowledge about the existence of geothermal water is mostly related to exploratory drilling for oil and gas and related infrastructure. This paper considers one geothermal exploration area in the northwestern part of Croatia with old oil and gas well data. These data were analyzed to obtain a clear picture of geological structures, distribution and thickness of the formations, water saturation and to determine geothermal characteristics at the potential location. A preliminary assessment of the exploitation of geothermal water for thermal purposes, geothermal plant installed power, as well as an economic analysis of the project have been analyzed. For more precise analyses, hydrodynamic test data were missing which would give a better assessment of the geothermal potential and the project's implementation. The costs of work and equipment were also missing due to large price fluctuations in the global market. The project is also accompanied by environmental restrictions. The qualitative risk analysis is the research goal of this paper according to the aforementioned project prerequisites, within which potential risks were identified. The risk analysis took into account the main techno-economic, environmental, and institutional obstacles and their possible impact on the implementation of the project itself or its results. During the risk analysis, it was necessary to define critical variables and their probability, impact, and overall level of risk. As part of the research results, measures were proposed to prevent the occurrence of risks and mitigate the consequences in the event of their occurrence. The main aim of the proposed measures was to reduce the uncertainty of the geothermal project's critical variables assessment.