Ground Source Heat Pump Systems in North Dakota: Economics and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Analysis

Abstract

Skyrocketing energy bills and global warming concerns due to space heating and cooling needs have made it mandatory that stakeholders think and act quickly on all necessary innovating ideas that can continue to increase the efforts in advancing technologies that can help reduce the dependence of North Dakotans on fossil fuel-based heating and cooling systems. The continental climate of North Dakota has hot summers and cold winters that drive high energy demands with an average temperature of 41.5 °F annually. Our review of energy demand in North Dakota shows that 45% of electricity demand for heating and cooling is met by natural gas, mainly in commercial and apartment buildings. Another 16% is met using propane fuel, the preferred option in rural communities’ townships with more single-family homes. The remaining demand is met with electric heating from coal-fired power plants. This paper uses a system dynamics modeling approach to understand how the complexities and interconnectivity of different variables influence energy demand within the North Dakota Energy mix, and then optimize the system to see how Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) can be used for heating and cooling. The result from our model shows that power demands for space heating and cooling in North Dakota could be met with GSHPs, which also help reduce GHG emissions and bring about substantial cost savings in the range of $1200 to $1700 annually for households.