Hydrothermal Favorability Map for Heat and Power Generation in the Bavarian Molasse Basin

Abstract

Deep geothermal energy could play an important role in the Bavarian energy transition as it is capable of providing base load power for the power and heat sectors. The Upper Jurassic Malm aquifer, in the Bavarian Molasse Basin, has been used for geothermal energy production for decades. However, high up-front costs together with exploration and production uncertainties limited the quick advancement of deep geothermal projects beyond the Munich peripheral area. The viability of a geothermal project depends not only on reservoir conditions, but also on the costs of supply and the actual energy demand. In this study, a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis is used to identify favorable sites for heat and power generation with hydrothermal energy. Geographic data that influence the technical and economic potential of a geothermal project are overlaid and weighted to obtain a favorability map. Analyzed criteria include the available geological, geochemical and geophysical properties of the Malm aquifer, the drilling costs, and the heat and power demand density of the region. The thermal and electric power potential of favorable sites is quantified based on the heat-in-place method. Additionally, favorable areas for the development of geothermal district heating are identified. The results show that the potential for electricity generation hardly reaches 1% of the yearly electricity demand in Bavaria, whereas the potential for heat generation is much higher.