Quick and Preliminary Approach for Forecasting Natural Recharge to a Hydrothermal Reservoir During Production

Abstract

This study proposes a quick and preliminary approach for forecasting natural recharge to a hydrothermal reservoir during a long production period—spanning over a few tens of years. This approach determines the frequency distributions of the pressure decline and production rate after an arbitrary period of production, based on observations of pressure transients during production tests. A case study which assumed a planar reservoir demonstrated an example of this approach. Investigations revealed the dependency of the simulated frequency distribution of the production rate on several conditions as well as how extending the duration of a production test improved the precision of forecasting future production rates.