Geothermal Resources Development Forecast Under Policy Incentives in China: A System Dynamics Analysis

Abstract

Driven by climate change and fossil fuel depletion,renewable energy will undoubtedly become the developing trend worldwide especially in those countries which depend heavily on foreign fossil fuels. Faced with the pressing need to reduce coal-fired and environmental improvements the geothermal resource industry in China has achieved rapid development in recent years. China has brought out several incentive policies to stimulate investment in geothermal resource industry. Under this favorable policy environment, geothermal resource is undoubtedly facing enormous development opportunities.This study combined with the theory of system dynamics and the theory of resource demand forecasting, analyzing current policy environment and interactions between involved variables, a simulation model of China's geothermal resources development was built using system dynamics methodology considering both economic and technical factors. Five Scenario are established in the model, then the model using the historical data to simulate the process of simulation and forecast the demand and supply in 2019-2050. The model allows an understanding of geothermal resources long-term development pattern under China's latest incentive policies, thus helping to provide reference for policy-making institutions.