Representative, Synthetic Model Ensembles Supporting Decisions for Geothermal Field Development

Abstract

Direct use, single doublet geothermal systems are subject to several uncertainties. Moreover, The interference between adjacent doublets becomes more important, as direct use geothermal systems transition towards multiple doublets by a single operator. Field development decisions are made at early stages, where uncertainties remain high and system behaviour is not fully understood. Full field models remain large and computationally expensive for evaluating development scenarios. To address this, the use of synthetic, representative models can be applied to educate decisions at the field scale. In this analysis, a base Hydraulic Thermal (HT) reservoir model using a Finite Element Method is utilized. The model is a synthetic representation of a real geological setting for a conductive geothermal field. An ensemble of model realizations is simulated. The analysis is focused on the system lifetime by means of the cold front breakthrough and produced cumulative energy. Using multiple parameters values for reservoir properties and operational inputs we explore the system sensitivity and dynamics. This uncertainty quantification expands the understanding of the interdependencies within the modelled system.