Stochastic Modeling of EGS Using Continuum-Fracture Approach

Abstract

Stochastic modeling of the hydraulic stimulation and long-term operation of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) is performed. Both the stimulation model and the operation model consistently use the continuum-fracture approach. Stochastically generated fractures are used in a simple hydro-mechanical model of the stimulation process. The resulting system of fractures with significantly higher conductivity is used in the heat transfer model of the operation regime of the underground exchanger. This model is used to compute a single realization of the key EGS properties: the output power and temperature. Monte Carlo method is then applied to predict probabilistic distribution of the EGS properties. The conceptual model and input data are loosely based on the geologic properties at the Litoměřice site, possible location of the first EGS in the Czech Republic.