PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRICAL POTENTIAL OF TOCOMAR GEOTHERMAL FIELD (CENTRAL PUNA - NW ARGENTINA) USING VOLUMETRIC METHOD

Abstract

The geological conditions along the Central Andes of South America allow the formation of geothermal fields of high, medium and low enthalpy. Despite the fact that Argentina has a high geothermal potential, the specific assessment of this resource is actually scarce. In this work, the first preliminary estimate of the geothermal potential of the Tocomar geothermal field for electricity production is presented. All the calculations were carried out using the reformulated USGS heat in place volumetric method, together with Monte Carlo simulations. The reservoir specific parameters required in the formulas were estimated from geological, geochemistry and geophysical data, thus the results are for an inferred geothermal resource. Multiple iterations have been performed modifying the probability distribution of each assumption to produce different forecasts. We analysed the electric generation capacity of the geothermal reservoir with a probabilistic approach due to the uncertainty level of each parameter and the exploration state of the project. The Tocomar geothermal field has a power production capacity between ~6 MWe (P90) to ~56 MWe (P10). The recovery factor, as it is expected, is the most sensitive variable in the estimation of the potential electric power generation and it has a linear correlation with the power output. The strategic geographical position of Tocomar and its geothermal potential for power generation offer a promising scenario for the future development of this field that could largely mitigate local socio-economic problems and provide an energy alternative allowing the exploitation of several mining projects (Li, Cu, Au, Ag) often economically unviable due to the lack of traditional energy resources.