Use of the Experience Curve to Understand Economics for At-Scale EGS Projects

Abstract

A significant advantage of proposed EGS projects is the repeatability of projects in similar geologic conditions in a condensed area. This allows for geologic, technical, and experience learnings to be applied directly from project to project. This paper outlines the impact of those learnings on economics as projects increase in scale. The experience curve is a well established concept in industry used to estimate future cost and economics. Examples from the geothermal industry and the oil and gas industry were examined to determine a reasonable range of slopes for the experience curve for EGS projects. Furthermore, the cost and performance improvement of the US onshore shale industry was reviewed in depth to determine both the experience curve effects and provide a case study on improvement in at-scale subsurface projects. Potential projects in Switzerland, the eastern United States and the western United States were evaluated using the range of values generated for the experience curve in the previous investigation. A specific horizontal, multi-stage completion well design was used to generate cost estimates and modeled temperature and flow rate assumptions for each case study. This information was then used to determine an unsubsidized LCOE for each project at different phases of maturity. The results show an initial high cost relative to market prices, but the experience curve shows a clear road map to generating cost competitive EGS projects even without any step change breakthrough in technology.