Interpretations of U.S. Geothermal Industry Data Analysis of Capacity, Net Production, and Efficiency Trends: 2002-2011

Abstract

Very often, the mark of performance and strength in energy generation is measured in capacity additions or megawatts installed. This measure, however, glosses over the impacts of system efficiencies, defined as capacity factor. The conversion of power to energy requires time, but also must consider specific system efficiencies relative to each technology. This study has explored the state of the U.S. geothermal market based on data available through the U.S. Energy Information Administration and highlights an interpretive approach for considering capacity factor. Market analysis was used to target annual rates of change, by geothermal technology, and then used the results to estimate production curves for each technology as a function of declining system capacity factors. From this method the study is concluded with remarks on recent developments in consideration to the understanding of capacity factor.