Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Geological Modeling for Geothermal Resource Assessment: A Case Study of the Xiongxian Geothermal Field, China

Abstract

Potential assessment is a consistent work through all stages of geothermal resource development. Several methods have been developed which depends on the availability of data on the reservoir. The volume method preferred and has been widely used in the early phases of geothermal development. As data are limited and are with high uncertainties at early stages of geothermal development, stochastic and risk analysis methods such as Monte Carol simulation are frequently used to estimate the range and probable distribution of stored heat reserves. However, it is usually difficult to determine the temperature and volume of the reservoir, especially when the geological structures become sophisticated. Here, we propose a combined method based on Monte Carlo simulation and geological modeling to characterize both the uncertainty of the temperature and volume of the reservoir, supposing both the reservoir temperature and volume has a triangle distribution, and the geological solids of both the reservoirs and caprock are constructed using Gemcom surpac and the characteristic values of the reservoir temperature and volume are calculated. Taken the Xiongxian Geothermal filed of China as a case, the stored heat energy of the Tertiary sandstone reservoir and the underlying Precambrian dolomite reservoir are calculated to be 7.28±2.16G TCE (1ó) and 4.96±1.86G TCE (1ó), respectively.