My research topic is the presentation of the methodology for determining ”risk factors” of geothermal exploration. Hungary's geothermal endowments are very good. The geothermal gradient is higher than 45 °C/km in this country. Both in preneogene basement and within the Neogene basin fill there are lots of clastic sediments, karstified, fractured limestone and dolomite in the substantial part of the country which are usually saturated with water and they have relatively high hydraulic conductivity. I used analogy of hydrocarbons exploration during my work. The basis of this is the determination of the chances for success of prospect research assessment, where geological probability is of great importance. The geological probability is the product of favorable output probabilities of the independent components (source rock, reservoir rocks, caprock, traps, migration). The probability of the existence of a supposed field with its prospective recoverable property can be estimated considering the above factors. During my study, I concluded that geothermal reservoirs’ research components for success are: heat source (magma intrusions), reservoir rocks, impermeable top and bottom seal, heat flow and transfer fluids. If the value of each component is 0.5, then it means that there is no evidence of the presence of any component or unreliable data value. The values less than 0.5 are unfavorable whereas larger values give positive results. I made a geothermal chance for success study considering a Hungarian geothermal system. I used geological probability determination methods which are used in the hydrocarbon industry. Just like in the case of hydrocarbon exploration, the subsequent random occurence of geological phenomena is necessary for the creation of a new field. That is why it is important to estimate the probabilities of the favorable occurences of the necessary geological processes. This is a subjective estimate which was based on the available data on the study area.

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