Modelling the Surface Plant: a Users Persepctive of Using Numbers to Predict Generation

Abstract

Predicting generation is an important function for a generation company. The data is used for justifying operational changes, budgeting and retail decisions. This paper is a users’ look at the type of surface models that have been used by Contact Energy, their applicability and pitfalls. Types of models will be discussed with their applicability in different circumstances: Historical trends have been very useful for short-term predictions and are both easy to create and accurate over short time frames. Spreadsheet models have been used with considerable success on a one off basis but are very time-consuming when present or new plant changes are incorporated. Modeling software has great potential with good outcomes from our limited use. Modeling has had many other benefits with the discipline required to produce the model requiring an in-depth examination of the fundamental drivers. This process is potentially more beneficial than the model itself and has been used to identify significant generation opportunities in optimizing steam field layout and plant configuration.