Legend of the Crater Lake Hot Springs: A Product of Model Mania

Abstract

Lines of indirect evidence and, primarily, conclusions from hypothetical modeling have led some researchers to theorize that hot springs may occur on the bottom of Crater Lake, Oregon. It was the stated opinion of some National Park Service representatives that thermal vents actually exist and somehow contribute to the quality of the lake water. The Department of Interior is currently evaluating the topic. Although hot spring discharge would be deleterious to the clarity of the lake, the reported loss of clarity is more likely attributable to sewage contamination. The actual presence or absence of hot spring vents has become a serious point of consideration due to expressed concern that the hypothetical hot springs might theoretically be affected by possible geothermal development outside of the National Park. Although direct hydraulic communication between the lake and any possible commercial hydrothermal system on the flanks of Mount Mazama is highly unlikely due to the geohydrologic setting, expressed environmental concern has resulted in a temporary moratorium on the issuance of federal geothermal leases. This issue illuminates a growing problem within the geosciences; that the overextension of data through modeling procedures promotes inaccuracies and misunderstanding. This paper examines the hypothetical modeling and interpretations of Crater Lake data and addresses the validity of the resultant conclusions. Objective review of the applied modeling procedures and lines of evidence illustrate that there is no reliable evidence for the presence of thermal vents but there are impressive lines of negative evidence that argue strongly against the existence of the legendary Crater Lake Hot Springs.