Geothermal High Temperature Resource Evaluation Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis

Abstract

An analytic method for evaluating the favorability of high temperature geothermal resources is presented. The technique, based on the use of weighted variables, is similar to that used by McClain (1980) and has been modified to allow geothermal sites into the Pacific Northwest to be ranked comparatively. The technique is significantly improved so that allowances for the large uncertainties that tend to surround geothermal resources can be made. Hirakawa and Arisaka (1981) used the Monte Carlo technique to address uncertainty during exploration o far Japanese geothermal field. The procedure used here allows uncertainty to be computed and identified much more easily than with the Monte Carlo method, yet it is typically available for such resource assessments. A brief description of the method is included, as is an example of the technique applied to two Oregon sites.