Utility Industry Estimates of Geothermal Energy

Abstract

The seventh annual EPRI survey of geothermal energy expectations of the nation's electric utilities shows a "firm" estimate of 1623 Mwe installed generation capacity by the year 1985. The average growth rate from the actual 1982 installed capacity of 1047 MWe would be 15.7%/a. The seven years of survey data were examined by six regression models and the mean expectation values were 1764 MWe "announced" for 1985, 3175 MWe "probable" for 1990, and 7758 MWe "possible" for 2000. The corresponding forecasts announced by the North American Electric Reliability Council are 1800 MWe for 1985 and 3140 MWe for 1990. The calculated mean growth rate of 12.5% /a through 1990 and 10,4%/a through 2000 agrees well with the mean growth rate of 14.4%/a, obtained by the exponential regression model, for the actual installed capacity of 502 MWe in 1976 to 1047 MWe in 1982. The mean expectation values for 1990 to 2000 appear to be reasonable estimates of the role of geothermal energy as an electrical energy supply for the United States through the year 2000.