Utility Industry Estimates of Geothermal Electricity

Abstract

The 1982 annual EPRI survey of the nation's electric utilities shows a 14% decline in the forecast of possible geothermal electric generating capacity by the year 2000. The decline to 9350 Mwe follows three consecutive years of constant forecasts of 10,8000 MWe by 2000 and increase in announcements of new geothermal capacity. Factors accounting for the 14% drop in expectations most likely include: (1) the cancellation of the 50 MW flash demonstration plant in New Mexico; (2) the curtailment of Federal programs in geothermal research and development; (3) the general climate of licensing and regulations confronting the nation's utilities; and (4) the general depressed economy of reduced demand, scarce capital, and high interest rates. Over the next 10 years generation additions in the West are expected to be fueled by 47% coal, 27% nuclear, 16% hydro, and 10% other. This trend is indicative of the fuels against which geothermal energy must compete. The price that utilities may be willing to pay for geothermal power will range from the equivalent of the most economic competing fuel to avoided cost, depending on unique market conditions in the sub regions.