Geothermal Electric Power Forecast in the United States and the Impact of R&D Advancements: 1982-2000

Abstract

This paper describes the use of modern techniques from the fields of decision science and econometrics to provide statistically sound forecasts of geothermal electric power development in the United States. The computerized forecasting model first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base, developed with the cooperation of several highly qualified geothermal geologists. The model then forecast the rate and extent of utilization of these geothermal resource discoveries, based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and electric utilities as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. The paper concludes that, depending on the extent of R&D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, geothermal power development is expected to reach between 7700 and 17300 MWe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand in western and northwestern states.