Cost Uncertainty and Simple Modeling for Direct Use Geothermal Resources
- Key words
- Economics; Direct Use; USA; Sensitivity Analysis; Cost Estimates; Cost Model; Economic Planning; Risk Analysis; Cost Nomographs
- Conference
- Geothermal Resources Council Transactions
- Year
- 1980
- Session
- Economics; Direct use; Computer modeling
- Language
- English
Abstract
Detailed sensitivity analysis of a direct heat application produces an area of cost uncertainty which is significantly large when reasonable values of reservoir characteristics are modeled. Principal cost drivers are identified and their interaction examined through regression analysis. A simple equation with first and second order effects is generated and explains 99% of the variance among cost estimates. A simple nomograph is developed with three cost drivers to aid in reaching minimum cost decisions.
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