Utility Industry Estimates of Geothermal Electricity

Abstract

The 1979 annual EPRI survey of the electric utility industry forecast of geothermal generating capacity shows a decline form 1978 estimates of about 25% beyond 1985. There are several possible reasons for this downturn in optimism, the most likely being that demonstration power plants for hot water dominated resources are seriously lagging behind industry expectations. In spite of this decline, the probable growth rate would still be in the range of 13% annum. In comparison to other energy sources, geothermal energy utilization in the near term is increasing more rapidly. Addition of generating capacity reported by the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) shows that the estimates of geothermal capacity are increasing at 3.7% annum, while estimates of total capacity additions form all sources have decreased at 3.1% annum since 1976. The geothermal growth rate through 1987 will be about 14% according to the latest NERC data.