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Enhancing Geothermal Feasibility Through Comprehensive Resource Assessment: the Role of Reservoir Modeling in Exploration Stages
Ferdino R FADHILLAH; John O’SULLIVAN; Ronny NUGRAHA; Dorman PURBA; Fikri RAHMANSYAH; Desak Nyoman Inten APRIANI; Astri Indra MUSTIKA; Vincentius Adven BRILLIAN
[Sarana Multi Infrastruktur, Indonesia]
Indonesia holds one of the world’s largest geothermal energy potentials, with an estimated 23.7 GW of identified resources. Despite this significant potential, geothermal project development remains constrained by exploration risks and financing challenges. The credibility of resource assessment plays a central role in determining project bankability, as it directly affects lenders’ confidence in long-term production performance and debt repayment capacity. This paper aims to bridge the gap between geothermal resource assessment and financial decision-making by analyzing the various geothermal resource classification and assessment methods. This study provides structured framework that bridges geothermal resource assessment methodologies with production forecasting, financial modelling, and lender risk perception It focuses on the role of reliable resource assessments in supporting informed decisions and enhancing project bankability. Through an in-depth exploration of key geothermal resource assessment methods—such as power density estimation, volumetric analysis, decline curve analysis (DCA), and numerical reservoir simulation—this paper highlights the strengths, limitations, and application suitability of each method in providing reliable inputs for financial models. The findings underscore that geothermal resource assessment is not merely technical requirement but strategic component of financial de-risking. The study emphasizes the critical need for integrating numerical reservoir modeling at the early stages of geothermal project development. By providing sufficient input for optimal sizing of the development, accurate energy output forecasts, well scheduling, and number requirements, reservoir modeling significantly reduces uncertainties in project planning. This approach helps ensure that the geothermal resource is fully understood and appropriately managed from the outset, enabling more accurate financial evaluations and risk assessments. The paper advocates for the systematic incorporation of reservoir modeling as a key component in early-stage feasibility studies, contributing to more informed decision-making and ultimately accelerating geothermal project development.
Topic: Reservoir Engineering