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An Updated Numerical Model of the Salton Sea Geothermal Field with Uncertainty Quantification Included
John O'SULLIVAN, Ken DEKKERS, Joris POPINEAU, Jeremy RIFFAULT, Theo RENAUD
[University of Auckland, New Zealand]
The Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) presents a unique opportunity for co-production of geothermal energy and lithium from hypersaline brines. This study introduces an updated numerical reservoir model of the SSGF, integrating expanded datasets, refined geological interpretations, and advanced simulation techniques. The model incorporates uncertainty quantification (UQ) to evaluate the impacts of geological heterogeneity and operational variability on lithium recovery and energy sustainability. Using a probabilistic ensemble of calibrated models, we assess three reinjection scenarios—business-as-usual, optimized outfield, and optimized infield reinjection—over a 30-year forecast period. Results show that lithium production declines over time due to chemical breakthrough and depletion of high-concentration brine, but optimized reinjection strategies can significantly improve recovery. Outfield reinjection increases median lithium recovery by ~14% compared to business-as-usual, while infield reinjection offers modest gains with potential cross-boundary trade-offs. The integration of UQ enhances decision-making by providing robust forecasts and identifying operational strategies that balance lithium extraction with geothermal energy production.
Topic: Modeling