Modeling reservoir temperature transients, and matching to permanent downhole gauge (PDG) data for reservoir parameter estimation

Obinna Duru

 

1.        Background and Motivation

Over the last decade, permanent download gauges (PDGs) have been used to provide a continuous source of downhole data in the form of pressure, temperature and sometimes flow rate. The tools provide access to data acquired continuously over a large period of time and containing reservoir information at a much larger radius of investigation than conventional wireline testing.

The behavior of pressure transients in reservoir and wellbore flow has been studied extensively, and applied in conventional well test analysis for reservoir description, parameter estimation for characterization and evaluation of well performance. In recent times, with convolution and deconvolution, filtering and tuning the data, conventional pressure transient analytical methods have also been applied to pressure data from permanent downhole gauges.

However, in the development of pressure transient analytical methods, it has been assumed that the temperature distributions in the reservoir and production zone are isothermal. The temperature changes associated with fluid flow had been considered to be relatively small and hence negligible for any consideration in the analysis of flow behavior of most fluids.

An analysis of temperature measurements, at a finer scale using continuous data from PDGs, has shown that the temperature of the fluids responds to changes in flow conditions in the reservoir and production zone. Generally, the flow is not isothermal when the scale of observation and resolution of the temperature data is reduced. This research is motivated by the possibility of identifying the underlying physical phenomena responsible for this temperature transient behavior and application to reservoir characterization and evaluation of well performance.

2.        Literature Review

Several authors have studied the thermodynamics of flow through porous media, especially in the context of heat convection and conduction. One of the earliest works in this regard was by Ramey (1962). He developed a model for the prediction of wellbore fluid temperature as a function of depth for injection wells. He expanded this to give the rate of heat loss from the well to the formation, assuming steady state in the wellbore and unsteady radial conduction in heat transfer to the earth.  Horne and Shinohara (1979) presented single-phase heat transmission equations for both production and injection geothermal well systems by modifying Ramey’s model. Shiu and Beggs(1980) presented another modification of Ramey’s model to predict the wellbore temperature profile for a producing well, where the temperature of fluid entering the wellbore from the reservoir is known. These wellbore models considered heat transfer as strictly convection and conduction phenomena with no internal generation in the reservoir.

Izgec et al. (2006) presented a model that applied to coupled wellbore and reservoir systems. They provided a transient wellbore temperature simulator coupled with a variable-earth-temperature scheme for predicting wellbore temperature profiles in flowing and shut-in wells.  Again, their study looked at the mechanism of heat transfer without consideration for possible heat sources and sinks such as internal generation.

Sagar, Doty and Schmidt (1991), developed a steady-state two-phase model for the wellbore temperature distribution accounting for Joule-Thomson effects due to heating/cooling caused by pressure changes within the fluid during flow. They considered Joule-Thomson effects as a possible source/sink of heat during fluid flow and applied the model to estimate heat losses in gas flow.

Valiullin et al. (2004) showed that indeed, adiabatic and Joule-Thomson effects as well as effects due to heat of phase transition (gas liberation from oil) are present during fluid flow in a hydrocarbon saturated porous medium.  They designed experiments to estimate the thermodynamic coefficients, namely the Joule-Thomson coefficient and adiabatic coefficients.

Ramazanov and Parshin (2006) went on to develop an analytical model that described the formation temperature distribution in a reservoir, while accounting for phase transitions. They solved a steady-state convective thermal flow model with constant flow rate and extended it to cases with phase changes.

Ramazanov and Nagimov (2007) presented a simple analytical model to estimate the temperature distribution in a saturated porous formation with variable bottomhole pressure.  Their investigation showed that for a single-phase fluid in a homogenous reservoir, temperature-pressure effects such as Joule-Thomson can cause the temperature in the reservoir to change significantly when reservoir pressure is changing in time.  They again solved the convective thermal transport model with variable pressure but constant flow rate.

An attempt to solve the full energy balance equation for the temperature distribution in a reservoir was made by Dawkrajai (2006) and Yoshioka (2007). Both presented equations for reservoir and wellbore heat flow and developed prediction models for the temperature and pressure. In an inversion step, they showed a means for the identification of water and gas entry into a well. Both approaches made considerations for Joule-Thomson and frictional heating effects but assumed a constant flow rate, and steady-state conditions in arriving at the solution to their models.

3.        Problem Description

Many attempts at developing interpretation method for temperature profiles in wellbore-reservoir systems have remained largely qualitative. Most of the analyses have concentrated on wellbore thermal exchanges due to conduction and convection, assuming that the produced fluid enters the wellbore at the geothermal temperature (Maubeuge, 1994). Others have attempted the study of thermometric fields in reservoirs and porous systems, but have constrained the analyses to convective effects only in steady-state formulations. A few have considered the effects of heating or cooling of the produced fluid before it enters the wellbore due to factors like the Joule-Thomson effect, adiabatic expansion and viscous dissipation.

This work aims to solve the problem of modeling the reservoir thermometric effects, as convective, conductive and transient phenomena. The contributions of compressibility and viscous dissipation are also included.

4.        Progress to Date

Maximal correlation between temperature and flow rate

In order to proceed with the study of the physics behind the observed temperature response to changes in flow rate and pressure, a nonlinear, nonparametric regression analysis tool namely the Alternating Conditional Expectation algorithm (ACE [Breiman and Friedman, 1985]) was used to estimate the transformations that may lead to the maximal multiple correlation between the response variable (temperature in this case) and the set of predictor variables (pressure, rate and time).  These transformations are useful in establishing the existence of a functional relationship between the response and predictor variables.

Using a field data set obtained from PDGs, the ACE method was applied to the pressure, rate and temperature data to establish the existence or otherwise of a correlation and functional form for their relationship. Figures 1, 2, and 3, show the rate, pressure and temperature data, and Figure 4 shows the plot of the regression on the optima transformations.

          

Figure 1: Rate data                                                                                                                             Figure 2: Pressure data

 

  

              Figure 2: Temperature data                                                                                                             Figure 4: ACE regression

 

The optimal transformation functions showed a correlation coefficient of 0.99. The nature of the forms of the optimal transformations also showed that a functional relationship form may exist between the temperature, and rate and pressure and this functional form can be extracted from any representative data set.

Integrated modeling of coupled reservoir and wellbore thermal system

PDGs are usually located some hundreds of feet above the perforation/production zone of a reservoir. The PDG placement constraint is one that is imposed by the design of the completions, and the optimal location for pressure and temperature data management would be a position as close enough to the perforation as possible, to give data that are comparable with their sandface values.

The approach adopted in the formulation of the physical model describing the behavior of the temperature distribution involved a coupling of a wellbore thermal model to a reservoir thermal transient model.

Wellbore temperature transient model

The wellbore model used here followed the dynamic model developed by Izgec, et al. (2006). The solution to the model was modified to account for heat transfer at shut-in times when flow rate is zero and heat transfer in the wellbore is only by conduction into the formation.

Reservoir temperature transient model (reservoir thermometry)

Theory:

The thermodynamics of fluid flow in porous media has been studied over the years.  Bejan (2004) presented a comprehensive thermodynamic approach to obtaining a representative model. He allowed considerations for spatial and temporal reservoir temperature distribution in the physical modeling step.

In a flowing well, the pressure and flow rate measurements by PDGs are not constant. For gauges placed close enough to the sandface area, these changes reflect the dynamics of the flow in the reservoir.  These flow dynamics cause a temperature field to evolve in the reservoir, driven by thermodynamic effects such as the Joule-Thomson heating (or cooling), adiabatic expansion, and heat of phase transitions. Other effects namely the viscous dissipation, equal to the mechanical power needed to extrude the viscous fluid through the pore, as well as frictional heating between the fluid and rock matrix during the fluid flow are also factors that contribute to  the evolution of a nonuniform temperature field.

Joule-Thomson effect and viscous dissipation: The Joule-Thomson effect is the change in the temperature of a fluid due to expansion or compression of the fluid in a flow process involving no heat transfer or work (constant enthalpy).  This effect is usually due to a combination of the effects of compressibility and viscous dissipation. The Joule-Thomson effect due to the expansion of oil in a reservoir or wellbore results in the heating of the fluid because of the value of the Joule-Thomson coefficient of oil – it is negative for oil and positive and more prominent in gas.

Combined with other factors, on expansion of the fluid and subsequently flow of liquid oil and/or water out of the reservoir, the wellbore and near wellbore areas in the reservoir become heated above the normal static reservoir temperature. By convection, diffusion and further generation of heat due to these effects, the nonuniform temperature spreads into the reservoir, increasing the temperature deeper into the reservoir. Conversely, during no-flow conditions (shut-ins), the regions already heated lose heat to the surrounding formation through diffusion and result in a temperature decline at a rate determined by the thermal diffusivity of the medium.

The model

Performing an energy balance through a control volume element, as well as establishing the attending mass conservation and flow equations, the following advection-diffusion forms of a thermal model for porous media can be derived (Bejan, 2004).

Single-phase formulation

The thermal model in a one-dimensional radial symmetric coordinate system with a single well takes the form:

             (1.1)

 

 

On rearrangement and assuming negligible gravity effects, this becomes

                                                                                         (1.2)

 

The mass balance equation yields:

                                                                                                                                  (1.3)

 

The Darcy flow equation also yields:

                                                                                                                                                         (1.4)

 

Where:

 

.

 

 

 

 

Equations 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 form the governing equations for one-dimensional thermal transport in a homogenous porous medium. The assumptions made in deriving the equations were:

·         The medium is homogenous, such that the solid and fluid permeating the pores are evenly distributed throughout the porous medium.

·         The medium is isotropic such that permeability, k and thermal conductivitydo not depend on the direction of the experiment.

·         At any point in the porous medium, the solid matrix is in thermal equilibrium with the fluid in the pores.

·         Darcy law applies.

 

Two-phase formulation (oil and water)

The assumptions for the two-phase formulation are similar to the assumptions made in the single phase case, with the addition of negligible capillary effects.

The thermal model in one-dimensional radial coordinate system for the two-phase system becomes:

 

                               (1.5)

 

 

On rearrangement and with negligible gravity and capillary effects,, this becomes

                                                                               (1.6)

 

The mass balance equation yields:

                                                                                                                          (                1.7)

 

The Darcy flow equation also yields:

                                                                                                                                                  (1.8)

Where:

 

 

 

 

 

Equations 1.2 and 1.6 are advection-diffusion equations that are difficult to solve analytically. Numerical methods also have issues with stability due in part to the nature of the model – a combination of hyperbolic convective transport and parabolic diffusion transport models.

In order to see the behavior of the model with changing model parameters, a semi-analytical solution was constructed using the method of Operator Splitting and Time Stepping (OSTS), developed for the solution of contaminant transport in ground water hydrology.

 

Operator splitting and Adaptive Time Stepping (OSTS) approach

Kacur (2002) and Remesikova (2003) described methods of solving the convection-diffusion problem using the operator splitting approach. The operator splitting method breaks the model into two different parts, the transport and diffusion parts. Then, at each time step, the nonlinear transport part and the nonlinear diffusion part are solved separately. Holden et al. (2000) showed the theoretical basis for this technique.

Kacur (2002) showed a precise way of solving the following type of problems:

                                                                                                 (1.9)

 

With boundary and initial conditions:

                                                                                                                                     (1.10)

                                                                                                                                                 (1.11)

 

First, the transport part is solved, which presents a hyperbolic problem of the form:

                                                                                                             (1.12)

 

With boundary condition of the form in Equation (1.10,) and initial condition of the form:

                                                                                                                                                   (1.13)

 

Then the solution obtained is denoted as . Thereafter, the diffusion part is solved, which is of the form:

                                                                                     (1.14)

 

With the same boundary condition and but  initial condition given by the solution of the convective part  -

                                                                                                                                                  (1.15)

Finally the solution is put as:

                                                                                                                                                       (1.16)

 

which is the solution of Equation (1.14). This is continued until the solution at the last time step is obtained, which becomes the final solution of the model.

 

Solution of the thermal advection-diffusion model by Operator Splitting and Adaptive Time Stepping (OSATS)

The OSATS approach was used to solve the thermal model Equations 1.2 and 1.6.  The methodology adopted was:

·         Decouple the model into two parts: the convection transport part and the diffusion part.

·         At each time step, first solve the hyperbolic convection transport part, accounting for variable flow rate, as well as heat generation due to viscous dissipation, frictional and Joule-Thomson effects.

·         Then  solve the diffusion part at the same time step, adaptively modifying the time step to ensure stability if solution is numerical.

·         Continue until the last time step.

 

Solution of the Single-Phase Formulation by OSATS

Assumptions:

·         Constant fluid Joule-Thomson and adiabatic expansion coefficient, thermal conductivity

·         Constant fluid viscosity and formation porosity

·         Negligible gravity effects

 

A.            Solution of the transport problem:

The convection equation with its initial condition becomes:

                                                                                                                  (1.17)

                                                                                                                                              (1.18)

 

Using the method of characteristics, the solution yields:

                                                                                                                              (1.19)

Such that for constant rate,

                                                                                                                                     (1.20)

 

Another form of Equation 1.20 starts by solving the pressure equation, and using the Darcy equation to replace velocity in Equation 1.19. If the total compressibility of the porous medium is considered negligible, then the pressure equation reduces to:

                                                                                                                                                   (1.21)

 

With boundary conditions:

                                                                                                                                              (1.22)

 

Where

This yields:

                                                                                                              (1.23)

And                                                                                                              (1.24)

 

Applying this to Equation 1.19 by replacing the velocity with the Darcy law equivalent gives:

                                                                                                                             (1.25)

Where                                                                    (1.26)

 

The parameter  which is the sand face pressure (bottomhole pressure) in the well bore is readily obtainable from solutions of classical pressure transient problems for different reservoir models.

Continuing the method of characteristics solution for the temperature yields,

                                                                                                            (1.27)

This becomes:

                                         (1.28)

 

Ramazanov et al. (2007) showed that by using the average time theorem, the integral on the LHS of equation 1.28 can be closely approximated when an optimal average time is used. Therefore, combining with equation 1.25, and applying the average time theorem, the final approximate solution for wellbore sand face temperature becomes:

                          (1.29)

Where

                          ,              

 

An optimal choice for z must be used and Ramazanov et al. (2007) suggested

B.            Solution of the diffusion part

The form of the diffusion problem is

                                                                                               (1.30)

 

With initial and boundary conditions:

                                                                                                                                           (1.31)

 

Ozisik (1993) using the method of  and integral identity described by Masters (1955), showed that the solution to Equation 1.30 is of the form

                                                             (1.32)

 

Where   is equivalent to the thermal diffusivity length, and takes the value

 

Therefore in the operator splitting and time stepping approach, at each time step, Equation 1.29 is evaluated for the solution of the convective part at that step. Then, this solution forms the initial condition F(r) in the evaluation of the diffusion solution, Equation 1.32. The final solution obtained from Equation 1.32 is taken as the temperature of the system at that time step.

Solution of the Two Phase Formulation by OSATS

 

A.            Solution of the transport problem

The convection equation with its initial condition is:

                                                                                                                      (1.33)

                                                                                                                                              (1.34)

 

The solution follows closely the approach used for single phase formulation.

By Method of Characteristics,

                                                                                                                                                                (1.35)

For constant rate, let

                                                                                                                                                      (1.36)

 

Such that

                                                                                                                         (1.37)

Where

 

The solution to Equation 1.35 becomes

                                                                     (1.38)

Again, we obtain another form of the solution Equation 1.38 by solving the pressure equation, and using the Darcy equation to replace velocity in Equation 1.35. Assuming total compressibility of the porous medium is negligible, then the pressure equation reduces to:

                                                                                                                                                   (1.39)

With boundary conditions:

                                                                                                                                              (1.40)

Where

Therefore,

                                                                                                              (1.41)

and

                                                                                                                                        (1.42)

Applying this to Equation 1.35 by replacing the velocity with the Darcy law equivalent and solving gives

                                                                                                                             (1.43)

Where

                                            (1.44)

The parameter  which is the sand face pressure (bottomhole pressure) in the well bore is readily obtainable from solutions of classical pressure transient problems for multiphase flow, and for different reservoir models.

The temperature solution therefore becomes,

                                                                                                        (1.45)

Where

This yields,

                                     (1.46)

Using the average time theorem, the integral on the left hand side of Equation 1.46 can be closely approximated when an optimal average time is used. Therefore, the final approximate solution for wellbore sand face temperature becomes:

                     (1.47)

Where

                      ,              

 

An optimal choice for z must be used.

 

B.            Solution of the diffusion part

The form of the diffusion problem is

                                                                                               (1.48)

With initial and boundary conditions:

                                                                                                                                           (1.49)

Using the method of  and integral identity again, we get the solution as

                                                             (1.50)

Where   is equivalent to the thermal diffusivity length, and takes the value

The final form of the solution is obtained by following the operator splitting and time stepping methodology used in the single phase solution.

 

Results So Far

Two data sets (named DAT.1 and DAT.2 here) obtained from permanent downhole gauges (PDGs) were used to test the models and also to perform a match for model parameter estimation. The data sets consist of PDG measurements of flow rate, pressure and temperature with time for different wells in different fields. Using the representative flow rate data as input, and thermal model developed, the temperature profile was simulated for each representative data input set. The challenge presented by the optimal selection of the diffusivity length parameter, b, became apparent. Since this parameter depends on the thermal diffusivity and the length of shut-in time (diffusion-dominated heat transfer period), different shut-in regimes required different optimal diffusivity length because of differing shut-in time durations.

An essential assumption also made in generating the results was that the distance between the gauge and the sandface (perforated zone) is small such that the temperature change due to the flow in the wellbore is assumed almost linear, allowing for the use of simple wellbore models for the wellbore flow component of the integrated model.

The results are presented as follows:

·         Results showing the issues with thermal diffusivity length and supporting reasons for selecting a representative transient section with approximately constant diffusivity length for parameter estimation.

·         Qualitative evaluation of the model: The results of testing the temperature model for both single-phase and two-phase formulation over well known and representative transient sections, and using arbitrary (but typical and physically meaningful) values of the parameters are presented. Plots of the results are compared with plots from the data for possible reproduction of the transient trends in the data. The tests were done for both data sets.

·         Exhaustive Monte Carlo simulation  to sample the distribution (two-dimensional marginal distribution) for identification of the possible search space in the parameter estimation step, and to check for possible multimodalities in the model solution.

·         The results of estimating model parameters by matching the model to the data for selected parameters. The plots of the optimal temperature profiles are then compared with the actual data for both single-phase and two-phase formulations, using the two available data sets.

·         Preliminary studies on spatial distribution of parameter fields.

Diffusivity length issues (single-phase formulation)

The flow rate from DAT.1 data set (800 hrs, 466000 data points) was used as input to the model to predict the temperature over the entire duration of the measurement. Uniform diffusivity length was assumed over several transients and revealed a complete loss of the diffusion behavior later in time.

Using a uniform but different diffusivity length, b = 11m, over the data region 0 - 350,000 (data point counter on x-axis), b = 8m over the data region 200,000 - 400,000, b=12m over 300,000 - 400,000 and b=10m over 100,000 - 200,000, the plots of the predicted temperature are shown in Figures 5, 7, 9 and 11, compared to plots of the corresponding sections in the actual data in Figures 6, 8, 10 and 12. These plots are shown only for qualitative reasons since model parameters were specified arbitrarily and were generated to see the behavior of the different shut-in regions with different diffusivity length scale, as well as reveal the effects later in time.

 

              

Figure 5: Temperature calculation:  b=11m, over 0-350,000                                                       Figure 6: Temperature from actual data over 0-350,000

 

            

Figure 7: Temperature calculation:  b=8m, over 200,000-400,000                                          Figure 8: Temperature from actual data over 200,000-400,000

 

                      

Figure 9: Temperature calculation: b=12m, over 300,000-400,000                                        Figure 10: Temperature from actual data over 300,000-400,000

 

             

  Figure 11: Temperature calculation : b=10m, over 100,000-200,000                                 Figure 12: Temperature from actual data over 100,000-200,000

 

The results show that while the model has the ability to predict the temperature profile in the reservoir, the accuracy of that prediction depends on the diffusivity length that characterizes the behavior of the profile at shut-in periods. No one diffusivity length value will characterize the entire model over a long period of time with recurring transients of different durations. Therefore, the optimal choice of this length scale would not be one uniform value over several transient periods or over data taken through a relatively long time. Figures 11 and 12 show that such optimal selection should be done over each representative transient, separately and independent of previous or subsequent shut-ins.

 

Qualitative evaluation of the model - single-phase formulation

Using arbitrary but typical and physically meaningful values of the model parameters, the following results were generated for qualitative evaluation of the model and the solution strategy adopted here. The model and solution was checked for reproducibility of transient trends seen in the measured data.

 

Figure 13: qualitative comparison with DAT.1 (first representative transient)

 

 

Figure 14: qualitative comparison with DAT.1 (second representative transient)

 

 

Figure 15: qualitative comparison with DAT.2

 

Figures 13, 14 and 15 show that the model and the solution qualitatively captured the changes/trends seen in the data in acceptable details. The overall shapes are reproduced by the formulation/solution. This forms a motivation for using the model in parameter estimation and subsequent uncertainty analysis.

Sensitivity arguments

The many variables and uncertainties in their values present a challenge in further processing and utilization of the formulation and solution methodology presented in this work. The following parameters were tested for sensitivity of the solution to their values.

The porosity of the reservoir formation, Joule-Thomson coefficient of the fluids, formation thickness, fluid viscosity, thermal conductivity of rock and fluid, permeability, diffusivity length, distance of permanent downhole gauge from the perforation and the geothermal gradient were tested in this preliminary sensitivity study.

The parameters with the most prominent sensitivity ( > 50% in temperature estimation for < = 25% change in the value of the parameters) were the fluid Joule-Thomson coefficient which smoothed the responses to small intermittent rate changes, the porosity of the formation, the height of the formation, the thermal diffusivity length and the geothermal gradient.

Since some of the parameters such as the formation thickness and geothermal gradient can be estimated with acceptable certainty from other means such as well logs, the parameter space for the inverse problem was reduced to the space of formation porosity, fluid Joule-Thomson coefficient and thermal diffusivity length.

 

Sampling the distribution of the parameter space

The nature of the distribution of the parameter space is not known explicitly since the model is nonlinear and the solution is semianalytic. Exhaustive Monte Carlo simulation was performed to generate the one-dimensional and two-dimensional marginal distributions of the parameter space. The distributions were then sampled for identification of the optimal search space in the parameter estimation step, as well as check for possible multi-modalities in the model solution.

The two-dimensional  marginal distribution for the radial system, with porosity and oil Joule-Thomson coefficient as parameters is shown in Figure 16.

 

Most probable joint optimal region

 
                           

Figure 16: two-dimensional  marginal distribution of porosity and oil Joule-Thomson coefficient DAT.1

 

Figure 16 shows that the distribution of the parameter space, in one-dimensional  and two-dimensional  marginals are unimodal. The plots also show that the parameter space for both porosity and oil Joule-Thomson coefficient as captured by the model is feasible and the values are physically realistic.

 

Inversion for parameter estimation – single-phase formulation

The model developed and the solution, unique to the boundary condition chosen in the formulation, was matched to the temperature data using the flow rate as input. Representative transient regions were selected, to ensure a constant diffusivity length and the parameters for estimation were porosity , oil Joule-Thomson coefficient , fluid thermal conductivity (in some instances as a check) and the optimal diffusivity length b.

 
                

Figure 17: parameter estimation using data from DAT.1

                                                                                                                                               

 

 
                        

Figure 18: parameter estimation using data from DAT.1

       

 

 
             

Figure 19: parameter estimation using data from DAT.1

 

 

 
                

Figure 20: parameter estimation using data from DAT.1

 

 

 
 

Figure 21: parameter estimation using data from DAT.1

 

 

 
                 

Figure 22: parameter estimation using data from DAT.1

 

The results show close matches within the size of the tolerance specified for the optimization step. Sensitivity studies showed that using much smaller tolerance values improved the match, but at more expensive computational costs.

 

Inversion for parameter estimation – two-phase formulation

Saturation data for testing the two-phase formulation is currently being acquired from laboratory experiments.  The intent of the inversion here was to test if using data acquired from single-phase oil flow, the inversion process would drive the water saturation to the specified critical value. Therefore, as in the single-phase case, the model developed here, unique to the boundary condition chosen in the formulation, was matched to the temperature data using the flow rate as input. Representative transient regions were selected, to ensure a constant diffusivity length and the parameters for estimation were porosity, water saturation Sw, and the optimal diffusivity length b. The critical water saturation value used was Swc = 0.2.

 

 
                      

Figure 21: parameter estimation using data from DAT.1

 

Since the data set used was representatively that of a single-phase oil flow, the inversion optimization step was expected to drive the water saturation to its critical value. The initial value of water saturation was set at 0.5. The matching and the trend from the results table at each iteration showed that the model drove the water saturation down towards the critical value, satisfying the tolerance at a water saturation of 0.3.

 

Spatial distribution of porosity field (heterogeneous porosity field–preliminary study)

The formulations and solutions allow for local point-to-point estimation of temperature in a discretized spatial grid. Each local estimation is dependent on the local values of the model parameters, hence allowing for the possibility of estimating local values of model parameters depending on the value of the temperature of the grid in the inversion step.  This forms the basis for the estimation of heterogeneous parameter fields.

 

Figure 22: Spatial distribution of temperature change at a time instant from DAT.1

 

 

          

Figure 23: Spatial distribution of temperature change at a time instant from DAT.1

 

 

Future Directions

Based on these results, further investigations into the following areas are being pursued:

·         Rate reconstruction – setting flowrate as variable in matching the thermal model to temperature histories.

·         Uncertainty quantification and confidence intervals.

·         Other sensitivity studies.

·         Direct estimations using the Alternating Conditional Expectations (ACE) predictive learning algorithm.

·         Further validation with other data sets from different fields and with different boundary conditions.


References

Aster, R.C, Borchers, B., Therber, C.H., (2005), Parameter Estimation and Inverse Problems, Elsevier Academic Press.

Bejan, A., Convective heat transfer, 3rd Ed., Wiley, 2004

Breiman, L., Friedman, J.H (1985) Estimating Optimal Transformation for Multiple Regression and Correlation, Journal of American Statistical Association, 80(391), 580-598.

Dawkrajai, P., Analis, A.R., Yoshioka, K., Zhu, D., Hill, A.D., Lake, L.W. (2004): A Comprehensive Statistically-Based Method to Interpret Real-Time Flowing Measurements, DOE Report.

Dawkrajai, P. (2006) Temperature Prediction Model for a Horizontal Producing Well, PhD Dissertation, University of Texas at Austin.

Hassan, A.R. and Kabir, C.S.: “Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer in Wellbores”, Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2002. <give full reference>

Holden, H., Larlsen, K.H., Lie, K.A., Operator Splitting Methods for Degenerate Convection-Diffusion Equations, II: Numerical Examples with Emphasis on Reservoir Simulation and Sedimentation, Comput. Geosci. 4(2000) 287-323.

Horne, R.N. and Shinohara, K., Wellbore Heat Loss in Production and Injection Wells, J. Pet. Tech, Jan., 1979, 116-118.

Horne, R.N., Geothermal energy assessment, Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, Kluwer academic publishers, 1988,

Izgec,B., Kabir, C.S., Zhu, D., Hasan, A.R.: (2006): Transient Fluid and Heat Flow Modeling in Coupled Wellbore/Reservoir Systems. Paper SPE 102070 presented at the SPE Annual Technical conference, San Antonio, Texas, 24-27th Sept.

Kacur, J., Frolkovic, P., Semi-Analytical Solutions for Contaminant Transport with Nonlinear Soption in One Dimension, University of Heidelberg, SFB 359, 24, Preprint, 2002, pp. 1-20.

Masters, J. I., Some Applications of the P-Function, Journal of Chem. Physics 23(1955), 1865-1874

Maubeuge, F, Didek, M., Beardsell, M.B., Arquis, E., Bertrand, O., Caltagirone, J.P., (1994): MOTHER: A Model for Interpreting Thermometrics., Paper SPE 28588 presented at the SPE Annual Technical conference and exhibition, New Orleans, 25-28th Sept.

Neild, D.A, Bejan, A., (1999), Convection in Porous Media Springer Publishers, 2nd ed

Ozisik, M.N, Heat conduction, 2nd Ed., Wiley-intersciences, (1993).

Ramazanov, A. Sh., Parshin, A.V.,  Temperature Distribution in Oil and Water Saturated Reservoir with Account of Oil Degassing, Oil and Gas Business Journal, 2006.

Ramazanov, A. Sh., Nagimov, V. M., Analytical Model for the Calculation of Temperature Distribution in the Oil Reservoir During Unsteady Fluid Inflow, Oil and Gas Business Journal, 2007

Ramey, H.J. Jr.: “Wellbore Heat Transmission,” JPT (April 1962) 435 Trans AIME, No. 225.

Remesikova, M., Solution of Convection-Diffusion Problems with Nonequilibrium Adsorption, Journal of Comp. and Applied Maths, 169 (2004), 101-116

Sagar, R.K., Dotty, D.R., and Schmidt, Z: “Predicting Temperature Profiles in a Flowing Well,” Paper SPE 19702 presented at 1989 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, TX Oct.8 –11

Shiu, K.C. and Beggs, H.D.: “ Predicting Temperatures in Flowing Oil Wells,” J. Energy Resources Tech, (March 1989 1- 11)

Tibshirani, R. (1988): Estimating Transformations for Regression Via Additivity and Variance Stabilization. Journal of American Statistical Association.,Vol. 83, No 402, 394-405, (June)

Valiullin, R.A, Sharafutdinov, R.F, Ramazanov, A.Sh., An Investigation of Thermodynamic Effects in Porous Media Saturated with Fluids. Bashkir State University, Russia, Ufa 450074

Wang, D., Murphy, M., (2005): Identifying Nonlinear Relationships in Regression using the ACE Algorithm. Journal of Applied Statistics, vol. 32, No. 3, 243-258, (April)

Yoshioka, K., (2007) Detection of Water or Gas Entry into Horizontal Wells by Using Permanent Downhole Monitoring Systems, PhD Dissertation, Texas A&M University.